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Shanghai, China - July 10, 2015 - While the conventional x-Si solar technology is approaching its theoretical conversion limit, alternative photovoltaic (PV) technologies are setting the bar higher and higher, gradually changing the landscape of the global solar market. In the latest report, "Chasing the Sun: Searching for the Game Changers in Disruptive Photovoltaic Technologies", Innova Research has estimated that the share of solar PV production capacity by conventional x-Si solar technology accounts for 84.7% of the global capacity in 2014. This share is forecast to decline to 78.4% by 2019, encroached by the emerging PV technologies. Innova Research believes that CIGS and CPV have the greatest potentials and will become the game changers in the global solar market.


In the report, alternative solar technologies are analyzed and ranked based on a matrix analysis of key technologies indexes, patent publications, and M&A activities. Innova Research classified the emerging solar technologies into three major categories, namely thin-film PV, including Copper indium gallium (di)selenide (CIGS), Cadmium Telluride (CdTe), TF-Si; concentrated PV (CPV), including LCPV and HCPV, and the 3rd generation solar technologies, including organic PV (OPV), dye-sensitized solar cell (DSSC), copper inc tin sulfide (CZTS), quantum dot (QD), and perovskite solar cells. As Nancy Wu, Research Director of Innova Research and the lead author of the report summarized, "Thin-film and CPV technologies are poised for large commercialization in the near future while the 3rd generation PV technologies will still have a long way to go towards that goal. We believe that the winners among the emerging PV technologies will be CIGS and high-concentrating PV (HCPV), both are benefiting from their outstanding cost reduction potentials and their feasibility for massive adoptions."


- CIGS leads the thin-film PV expansion with production capacity growth from an estimated 1.8 GW in 2010 to a forecast 5.6 GW in 2019, followed by CdTe, from 2.5GW to 3.5GW in the same period. Meanwhile, the production capacities for CPV modules are forecast to grow from an estimated 1.5GW in 2010 to a forecast 2.4GW in 2019, with over 60% of the capacity contributed by HCPV by 2019.


- Thin-film accounts for the largest number of M&A activities in the alternative solar technology fields, followed by CPV, with 24 and 14 deals closed, respectively, from 2010 to 2014. The total $ values of the M&A deals in the thin-film and CPV fields were estimated at $1.08 billion and $247 million, respectively, in the same period.


- US leads the IP publications in CdTe, CIGS, and CZTS, while Asian countries, including China, Japan, and South Korea are catching up in DSSC, QD, and perovskite PV technologies in the past five years. The increasing research focuses on the alternative solar PV technologies, particularly on their efficiency enhancement and the stability of the systems, will greatly drive up their commercialization in the next few years.

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